OPay’s IPO Test: Can Wall Street Price Nigeria’s Cash-to-Digital Payments Network?

# Executive Take

OPay’s reported plan for a US listing is not just another African fintech headline. It is a question for global capital markets: can a company built around Nigeria’s cash-heavy retail economy command a public-market valuation in New York? A reported listing would do more than give early investors a path to liquidity — it would test whether global public markets are ready to value the agent-led infrastructure powering Nigeria’s cash-to-digital economy.

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The Reported Listing

• Bloomberg reported in May that the SoftBank-backed payments company is working with Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and JPMorgan Chase on a possible US initial public offering, and is seeking a valuation of about $4 billion.
• The company may sell shares later this year, although the timing and size of the offering have not been finalized.
• OPay was valued at $2 billion in 2021 after raising $400 million in a funding round led by SoftBank Vision Fund 2, Reuters reported at the time.

A $4 billion target would represent more than a routine fundraising milestone — it would ask public investors to place a fresh price on one of Africa’s most visible digital-payment networks.

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Management Built for Public Markets

Recent management changes suggest OPay is preparing itself for a more demanding capital-markets environment:

• December 2025: OPay appointed James Perry, a former Citigroup technology investment banker, as Chief Financial Officer.
• January 2026: The company announced a new global management team that included Lars Boilesen as co-CEO.

For a company reportedly considering a US listing, these appointments matter because public-market investors will look beyond user numbers. They will also assess financial reporting discipline, investor relations, governance, regulatory communication, and the credibility of the management team leading the company into its next phase.

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The Scale Behind the Story

The simple version of the story is that OPay has grown large enough to go public. The more important version is that OPay has built its scale by turning agents, merchants, smartphone users and frustrated bank customers into an alternative retail-payments network.

• The Guardian reported in 2023 that OPay had more than 40 million users, 500,000 agents and 300,000 merchants in Nigeria.
• Paystack said in 2024 that its merchants in Nigeria could accept payments from more than 40 million OPay users.

These figures matter because the investment case for a payments company is not built on downloads alone. It depends on frequency, trust, transaction value, merchant adoption, and the company’s ability to earn revenue across transfers, POS, merchant acquiring, cards, savings and other financial services.

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Key Market Signals

| Indicator | Latest Signal | Why It Matters |

|---|---|---|

| POS transaction value | Rose to ₦18.78 trillion in Q1 2026, up from ₦10.45 trillion in Q1 2025 (NIBSS) | Confirms OPay’s model is tied to agent- and terminal-led infrastructure, not just app downloads or wallet balances. |

| NIBSS Instant Payments volume | Nearly 11 billion transactions processed in 2024, vs. about 5 billion in 2022 (CBN fintech report cited by NIBSS) | Raises the question of how much of that national transaction flow OPay can convert into durable revenue. |

| Mobile money transactions | Rose to ₦20.71 trillion in Q1 2025, from ₦1.28 trillion in Q1 2021 (TechCabal, citing NIBSS) | Reflects a behavioural shift toward fintech wallets and POS agents when bank apps fail or branch banking is inconvenient. |

That is what makes the possible listing interesting. OPay is not simply a technology company — it is a digital layer over Nigeria’s informal economy. Its agent network gives it physical reach. Its wallet gives users speed. Its merchant tools give small businesses a way to collect and move money without relying entirely on bank branches.

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What Public Investors Will Ask

The same factors that make OPay attractive also create the questions public investors will ask:

• How many of its reported users are active?
• What is the transaction value per user?
• What is the revenue mix between transfers, merchant services, POS, cards, savings and lending?
• What are the take rates?
• How expensive is the agent network to maintain?
• What does profitability look like after incentives, compliance, customer support and technology costs?

These questions will become even more important if a prospectus is filed. The headline valuation may attract attention, but the prospectus will determine the quality of the story. Investors will want to see active users rather than registered users, transaction value rather than only transaction count, revenue mix rather than broad product descriptions, and profitability after incentives, agent commissions, compliance costs, fraud management and technology spending. In other words, the IPO test will not be whether OPay is large — it will be whether its scale translates into durable, well-governed, and profitable financial infrastructure.

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Why Public Markets Are a Different Test

Those questions matter because public markets are less forgiving than private venture rounds. Private investors can pay for growth and optionality. Public investors usually demand clearer evidence of revenue quality, unit economics, governance and regulatory durability.

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Regulatory Backdrop

Regulation is central to the listing story.

• April 2024: TechCabal reported that the CBN directed OPay, Kuda, Moniepoint and PalmPay to pause onboarding new customers amid scrutiny of their account-opening and KYC processes.
• TheCable later reported that OPay and Kuda resumed onboarding in June 2024 after the CBN authorized them to do so.

That episode does not weaken the listing story; it clarifies the risk investors will price. OPay operates in payments, deposits, consumer finance, and financial-crime prevention — areas where scale attracts supervision.

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Where Is the Value Captured?

The possible IPO also raises a broader Nigerian capital-markets question. If a company monetizing Nigerian payments lists abroad, where is the value being captured? Nigeria provides the users, agents, merchants and transaction flows. A US exchange would provide the valuation platform, liquidity and exit route. That gap matters — it shows why local capital markets must become deeper, more liquid and more comfortable with high-growth technology and financial-infrastructure companies.

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Sector Context

• McKinsey has said African fintech revenues could more than quadruple by 2028, although the firm also noted that funding conditions have tightened since 2021. A credible OPay listing would therefore arrive at a sensitive moment — it could reopen the African fintech exit story after a period in which private funding became harder and investors became more selective.
• Moniepoint raised $110 million in 2024 from investors including Google, Development Partners International and Lightrock, pushing its valuation above $1 billion and reinforcing investor interest in Nigerian payments and business-banking infrastructure.
• PalmPay has reported more than 35 million users in Nigeria, showing how quickly consumer fintech platforms have embedded themselves in everyday transactions.

Together, these companies suggest the OPay story is not only about one possible IPO. It is about a maturing Nigerian fintech infrastructure race, where scale, trust, regulatory compliance and monetization will increasingly determine which platforms can attract global capital. A successful OPay listing could create a valuation benchmark for the sector; a weak reception could force African fintech companies to rethink growth claims, profitability timelines and governance standards.

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Risks

• Market windows can close quickly.
• US interest rates and investor appetite for fintech IPOs will matter.
• Nigeria’s exchange-rate volatility remains a factor.
• Competition and regulation could shift the calculus.
• OPay’s own financial disclosures — the prospectus, if filed, will be more important than the headline valuation.

Nothing about the listing is guaranteed.

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Bottom Line

The potential listing is important because it would test whether Nigeria’s everyday payment behaviour can be translated into a transparent public-market story. The POS agent at a street corner, the small merchant collecting digital payments, the commuter paying bills by phone, the customer avoiding a failed bank app — none of these are isolated behaviours. Together, they form the infrastructure that OPay is asking investors to value.

If Wall Street accepts that story, OPay’s listing could mark a new phase for Nigerian fintech: the moment it moves from private-market promise to public-market discipline. If it does not, the lesson may be just as important. Scale alone will not be enough. The next generation of African fintech companies will have to prove that reach, revenue, regulation and profitability can all sit in the same model.